Commentaries & Views

Jefferies Analysts, Strategists and Economists provide real-time thought leadership across the global financial markets, offering insights and new ideas for or clients on a range of topics, including market strategy, economics, equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange.

Statistical Model Predicts Timing of Vaccine Phase III Data Soon

Jefferies Equity Research Analysts - Biotechnology, Michael Yee and Chris Howerton, conducted a deep dive statistical analysis of the Phase III study of MRNA's COVID-19 vaccine to determine 1) when data could be ready and 2) whether the study is sufficiently powered to achieve stat sig.

August 3, 2020

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Ciena’s WDM Market Share Opportunity – Another Layer Deeper

George Notter, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Telecom & Networking Equipment, continues to like Ciena shares and see them as a major beneficiary of market share consolidation in Optical systems.

August 3, 2020

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Tobacco Feedback: No One Cares About Cigarettes

Owen Bennett, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Cannabis and Tobacco, says money on the sidelines is giving cigarettes no terminal value.

July 29, 2020

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Structural Shifts Point to Rising US SAAR; TEL Upgrade

David Kelley, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Auto Tech & Mobility, summarizes takeaways from two recently published notes.

July 26, 2020

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Iron Ore/Coal Demand Growth to Slow but Shipping to Strengthen

Chris LaFemina and Randy Giveans, Jefferies Equity Research Analysts’, forecast shipments of iron ore and coal to increase at a CAGR of just 1% from 2019-2025; however, slower growth does not necessarily mean lower freight rates.

July 19, 2020

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Don’t Stand So Close To Me: A Survey of Consumer Behavior & Intentions

Director of Research, Michael Eastwood, discusses Jefferies' recently published U.S. consumer survey, focused on how Americans intend to spend the summer, when they expect to return to work and how they intend to spend money over the next 12 months.

July 16, 2020

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Thriving or Just Surviving - Upgrading E&P Cashflow Winners

Mark Wilson, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Energy, published a new E&P valuation framework combining NAV & EV/EBITDA to better capture near-term cash optionality because Jefferies' cash netback analysis points to clear winners in the new world order of - at least for now - adequate supply/demand.

July 16, 2020

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Traffic Monitor Shows TJX on the Rise

Janine Stichter, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Department Stores & Specialty Softlines says footfall data suggests traffic reaching roughly 'normal' levels for off-price retailers, including Buy-rated TJX. Combined with higher conversion/basket, we expect comps are still running positive.

July 10, 2020

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Flavio's Luxury Fruit Salad...How the Sector Evolves

Flavio Cereda, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Luxury Goods, asks, how has the Luxury Sector evolved in the last 20 years and is the Chinese consumer the only real engine of growth?

July 6, 2020

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Planet Fitness CEO 1 on 1 Talkin' Tech... Next Big Value Creation Driver

Randy Konik, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Lifestyle & Growth Platforms, conducted a nearly 40-minute interview with the CEO discussing all things technology at PLNT.

July 1, 2020

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It's Good To Be The Kings

David Katz, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Gaming, Lodging & Leisure, says DKNG is among the best positioned to capitalize on the growth of digital/sports wagering in the U.S., which we believe is in the initial stage of a decade-long acceleration.

June 24, 2020

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The Bull Case for Japanese Integrated Steelmakers

Thanh Ha Pham, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Metals, thinks that Japanese blast furnaces have reached the bottom with production below 60% and more than a third of their facilities are currently being idled.

June 22, 2020

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Churn Tracker: End of the Reprieve

Jerry Dellis, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Telecom, says in hard lockdown markets, churn has rebounded close to pre-lockdown levels with challengers regaining momentum in France (BYG/SFR) and Italy (ILD).

June 16, 2020

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View From 30,000 Feet

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Aerospace & Defense Electronics, in this video installment of What's Up in Aerospace & Defense, reviews our recent Views from 30,000 Feet.

June 11, 2020

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What’s Up in A&D: Avaition Summit

This edition of What's Up in A&D highlights some key takeaways from our Business Aviation Summit.

June 9, 2020

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SMID Cap Thoughts & Observations

Steven DeSanctis, U.S. Equity Strategist for Jefferies, in his monthly "video," highlights Green Shoots in small caps including the revision ratios ticking higher and '20 profits have bottoming for now at an UGLY -51%.

June 5, 2020

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Energy Facts & Life Hacks

Chris Sighinolfi, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Energy, with another installment of our Life Hacks & Energy Facts video series.

June 5, 2020

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UK Housebuilders: Survey Results Suggest Underpin of Demand

Glynis Johnson, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Building, Construction & Housebuilders, discusses Jefferies Proprietary UK Consumer Survey, which suggests a positive underpin of demand to move home in the UK.

June 2, 2020

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NAREIT Preview: What We're Asking

Jon Petersen, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – REIT, says while there are near-term topics at hand, from rent collection to reopening, we are also aiming to figure out each REIT's long-term plan to adjust to a new normal.

May 31, 2020

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What’s Up in A&D – Expert Call Highlights

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Aerospace & Defense Electronics, summarizes recent expert calls that Jefferies hosted with Deborah Lee James, former Secretary of the Air Force; Bob Genter, EVP and General Manager of SAIC's Civilian business; and Rob Wilson, the CEO of privately held MRO provider TurbineAero.

May 21, 2020

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Life Beyond COVID-19: CPG / Retail – Implications – Nielsen Expert Call

Kevin Grundy & Rob Dickerson, Jefferies Equity Research Analysts, hosted Regan Leggett, Executive Director at Nielsen, on May 18th to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on CPG cos.

May 21, 2020

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Machinery Analyst at Home Drinking Coffee – Earnings Wrap Up

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Machinery, with his video series Analyst at Home, Drinking Coffee continues with Episode 3, Key Themes and Top Picks Following Earnings.

May 20, 2020

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Meaningful NT Impact from COVID-19; LT Pipeline Is Robust

Brent Thill, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Internet, Software and Cloud, reviews our survey of 50+ partners which indicates 74% saw their CRM pipelines decrease from COVID-19. This is the most negative survey in 5+ yrs. This data was offset by positives in Commerce Cloud outlook and Tableau adoption.

May 17, 2020

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What's Up in A&D: Earnings Run Through

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Aerospace & Defense Electronics, summarizes the third week of Mar Q earnings season. In our universe KTOS, LDOS, LHX, PSN, RTX, SPR, TDG, and WWD reported.

May 13, 2020

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Denominator Effect and Other Teachings from 1Q Alts Earnings

Gerald O’Hara, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Financial Institutions, says the first covid-impacted quarter for the alts was perhaps better than feared; however, there remains a fair amount of risk given broad industry exposures.

May 13, 2020

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Working & Playing on Memorial, Labor or New Year’s Day?

Michael Eastwood, Jefferies U.S. Director of Equity Research, highlights Jefferies Equity Research global survey which includes a 1,400 person consumer survey that assesses consumer intentions given the upcoming relaxation of stay at home rules as well as the last week’s news around therapies and testing.

May 6, 2020

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REIT Week: Dance of the 'R-Nought'

Mike Prew, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – REITs, shares that we are trading REITs inversely to R0 which epidemiologists use to gauge COVID-19 transmission rates. Our sector upgrade coincided with R0 heading below 3 and is now <1 and restrictions should begin to be lifted.

May 2, 2020

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MarQ Earnings: Week 2 Summary

Mark Lipacis, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Semiconductors, summarizes Week 2 of the MarQ earnings season, in our universe NXPI, LSCC, AMD, MXIM and MTSI reported.

May 1, 2020

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